Tag
estimation
- May 22, 2026 Aggregating Task Estimates: Why Summed Ranges Come Out Too Narrow Why adding per-task ranges produces an interval that is too tight for the whole job, how skew and correlation break the diversification argument, and what to compute instead. software engineering
- Jul 6, 2025 Calibrating Interval Estimates Against Recorded Outcomes What an eighty percent interval promises, how coverage is measured on small samples, why width must be scored alongside the hit rate, and how reference classes supply the correction. software engineering
- Aug 21, 2024 Estimating Change Rates from Interval-Censored Fetches Why a page observed to change once in ten fetches does not have a ten percent change rate, and how a Poisson model with a Gamma prior turns sparse observations into a revisit interval. information retrieval
- Dec 20, 2022 Critical Path, Float, and Why the Longest Chain Sets the Date How the forward and backward passes compute earliest and latest dates, what total float measures, and why a zero-float path is not necessarily the riskiest one. software engineering