Tag
forecasting
- Mar 31, 2026 Forecasting Completion Dates from Historical Throughput Resampling the observed rate of finished work to produce a distribution of completion dates, and the assumptions about scope, unit, and independence that decide whether the answer means anything. software engineering
- Jul 6, 2025 Calibrating Interval Estimates Against Recorded Outcomes What an eighty percent interval promises, how coverage is measured on small samples, why width must be scored alongside the hit rate, and how reference classes supply the correction. software engineering
- Jul 4, 2025 Forecasting Exhaustion for Saturation Alerts How a linear projection over a recent window turns a saturation alert from a percentage threshold into a deadline, why the projection is only valid for a bounded horizon, and where it breaks. observability
- Sep 19, 2023 Modeling Throughput Growth and Service Demand Drift Why per-request cost rises across releases and with load, how to separate traffic growth from efficiency change in a capacity series, and what a drift budget means for a sizing horizon. performance engineering