Tag
uncertainty
- May 22, 2026 Aggregating Task Estimates: Why Summed Ranges Come Out Too Narrow Why adding per-task ranges produces an interval that is too tight for the whole job, how skew and correlation break the diversification argument, and what to compute instead. software engineering
- Mar 31, 2026 Forecasting Completion Dates from Historical Throughput Resampling the observed rate of finished work to produce a distribution of completion dates, and the assumptions about scope, unit, and independence that decide whether the answer means anything. software engineering
- Jul 6, 2025 Calibrating Interval Estimates Against Recorded Outcomes What an eighty percent interval promises, how coverage is measured on small samples, why width must be scored alongside the hit rate, and how reference classes supply the correction. software engineering